The UFC returns to pay-per-view to finish off 2017 with a bang this Saturday night. Cris Cyborg defends her belt against Holly Holm, while Khabib Nurmagomedov faces Edson Barboza to determine who gets the privilege of taking on Tony Furguson next.
The main card starts at 10pm on PPV, while the prelims start at 8pm on Fox Sports 1.
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Now let’s get down to business.
- Louis Smolka ($7,200) can have a frustrating tendency of being impatient in his fights – if his opponent is not forcing the action, then he must do it himself. This doesn’t always work, especially against patient counter-fighters like Matheus Nicolau. However, Smolka’s activity and scrambling ability also always means that he is a live dog, and at one of the lowest price-tags on the card he is hard to pass on here.
- It feels weird calling Carlos Condit ($8,500) a value pick, but due to his long lay-off he is one this weekend, so don’t miss out on it. Neil Magny is a dangerous fighter in his own right, but his defensive lapses should allow even a rusty Condit to find his rythm and get down to work viciously.
- Tim Elliot ($9,00) is the favorite against Mark de la Rosa this weekend, and he should be. However, his style does not lend itself to that kind of price-tag. Additionally, his opponent, while making his UFC debut, has some slick striking that can catch Elliot while he aggressively tries to close the distance. I’m not calling an upset here, but maybe I am…
- I really like Khalil Rountree Jr. ($9,400), trust me. He does have great power, and can end a fight quickly. He can also, however, rely too much on his athleticism over any technique. Will he knockout Michael Oleksiejczuk this weekend? Maybe. Am I going to spend $9,400 of my DFS salary cap on that bet? No.